Global inflation could be peaking, the head of the International Monetary Fund has said, but she warned that consumers were at risk of facing persistent pressure from rising living costs due to a breakdown in world supply chains.
Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said there were signs the global surge in consumer prices since the Covid pandemic and exacerbated by Russia’s war in Ukraine was close to its apex.
“It is very possible that we are peaking,” she said in an interview with Bloomberg TV from the Cop27 climate summit in Egypt. “We now see central banks very united on fighting inflation as a top priority and rightly so. If we don’t succeed, it would de-anchor and then the foundation for growth which is price stability is dented.”
However, the head of the Washington-based fund warned that a fragmentation in global manufacturing supply chains could make it harder to push measured inflation rates back down to the levels seen in recent years before the Covid pandemic.
“We actually think inflation is going to be harder to bring down to the desirable level of around 2%. Why? Because the drivers of deflation are not only supply [and] demand disruption, but also a changing cost structure that comes from the realisation that, no more, we make economic decisions only on the basis of cost.
“Supply chain security also matters. If we are going to see diversification of supply chains, that inevitably is going to put some upward pressure on prices.”
In its annual health check on the world economy published last month, the IMF forecast that global inflation would peak at 9.5% in the third quarter of 2022 before falling back to about 4.1% by 2024.
Global investors in financial markets are watching closely for signs of a peak in world inflation amid anticipation that major central banks will begin to pivot away from using big interest rate increases to combat soaring living costs.
However, economists warn that inflationary pressures could prove more persistent than in the past, given heightened geopolitical tensions and a global reconfiguration of manufacturers’ supply chains. In response to severe disruption during the Covid pandemic, businesses have pushed to source supplies from closer to home, even if this means higher prices.
The Bank of England said last week it expected inflation in the UK to peak at just under 11% in October, before falling back substantially over the following year. Driven by soaring energy prices and the rising cost of food and drink, inflation in the UK rose to 10.1% in September, the highest rate since 1982.
Threadneedle Street said there were signs that supply chain conditions had improved in recent months, while a slowdown in the world economy was weighing on demand for goods and services. Global shipping costs have fallen back in recent weeks, and oil and gas prices on wholesale markets have also dropped.
Last week, the Bank raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points to 3%, the biggest single rise in borrowing costs since 1989, despite warning that Britain risked being plunged into its longest recession in 100 years.
Most of Netflix’s 238 million streaming customers around the world will be unaware that the company first launched 25 years ago as a DVD mailing service. Even fewer might realise that operation has continued, with under 1 million people still subscribing.
But now the company is finally hitting the stop button, with its five remaining US distribution centres mailing out their final discs to American customers on Friday.
These DVD diehards will be allowed to keep these titles rather than return them, meaning some will get up to 10 as a goodbye present from a business that boasted as many as 16 million subscribers at its peak.
“It is very bittersweet,” Marc Randolph, Netflix’s co-founder and the chief executive when the company shipped its first DVD, told Associated Press. “We knew this day was coming, but the miraculous thing is that it didn’t come 15 years ago.”
Netflix does not break out the number of DVD subscribers in its figures, but according to an AP estimate fewer than 1 million people now subscribe to the service.
Randolph came up with the idea of a DVD-by-post service in 1997 – in a challenge to then rental market leader Blockbuster – with his friend and fellow entrepreneur, Reed Hastings, who eventually succeeded Randolph as CEO. He only stepped aside from that role this year.
The first disc sent out by Netflix was Tim Burton’s Beetlejuice in March 1998 and since then the company has shipped 5.2bn of them. Its most popular title was the Sandra Bullock vehicle The Blind Side.
However, Randolph said he knew that DVDs would not be the mainstay of the business and would be overtaken by watching films and TV shows through internet connections.
In 2011 Netflix decided to separate the DVD business from the streaming business, one year after Blockbuster went bankrupt – having turned down an opportunity in 2000 to buy Netflix for $50m (£41m) instead of trying to compete against it. The streaming giant is now worth about $166bn.
“From day one, we knew DVDs would go away, that this was transitory step,” Randolph said. “And the DVD service did that job miraculously well. It was like an unsung booster rocket that got Netflix into orbit and then dropped back to Earth after 25 years. That’s pretty impressive.”
Embattled Chinese property giant Evergrande has suspended share trading on the Hong Kong stock exchange only a month after it resumed trading after a 17-month suspension.
Trading in its two other units – the property services and electric vehicle groups – also stopped at 9am on Thursday, according to notices posted by the stock exchange.
The halt in trading comes a day after reports that the chair of Evergrande had been put under police surveillance. Hui Ka Yan, who founded Evergrande in 1996, was taken away earlier this month and is being monitored at a designated location, according to Bloomberg.
It is not clear why Hui might have been placed under residential surveillance, which falls short of a formal detention or police arrest and does not mean a criminal charge follows.
Evergrande had only resumed trading on 28 August after the company was suspended for 17 months for not publishing its financial results. Earlier this month, several employees of Evergrande’s wealth management unit were arrested in Shenzhen on unspecified charges.
Two former executives were also reportedly detained recently. Pan Darong and Xia Haijun had resigned last year after it emerged that 13.4bn yuan (£1.5bn) of deposits had been used as security for third-party loans.
Earlier this week, Hengda Real Estate, Evergrande’s primary unit in mainland China, missed principal and interest payments on a 4bn yuan bond. Hui resigned from his position as Hengda chair in 2021.
On Sunday, Evergrande said it was unable to issue new debt as Hengda was being investigated.
And on Friday it said meetings planned this week on a key debt restructuring plan would not take place, adding it was “necessary to reassess the terms” of the plan in order to suit the “objective situation and the demand of the creditors”.
China’s property sector is a key pillar of growth – along with construction, it accounts for about a quarter of GDP – and has experienced a dazzling boom in recent decades.
The massive debt accrued by the industry’s biggest players has, however, been seen by Beijing in recent years as an unacceptable risk for the financial system and overall economic health.
Authorities have gradually tightened developers’ access to credit since 2020 and a wave of defaults has followed – notably that of Evergrande.
Another Chinese property giant, Country Garden, narrowly avoided default in recent months, after reporting a record loss and debts of more than $150bn.
Elon Musk, owner of X, has confirmed he has ditched his team working to prevent disruption to elections, just days after the EU announced the platform, formerly known as Twitter, had the highest proportion of disinformation in three European countries.
Ahead of 70 elections around the globe in the coming year, the controversial businessman confirmed on X: “Oh you mean the ‘Election Integrity’ Team that was undermining election integrity? Yeah, they’re gone.”
According to reports, several staff working out of the Dublin office including the co-lead of election disinformation team, Aaron Rodericks, have left the company.
Overnight Musk appeared to give his first reaction to EU claims that X had the highest ratio of disinformation of the large social media platforms with a picture of three penguins bearing the logos of Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and YouTube saluting another penguin bearing the X logo.
Rodericks had recently secured an injunction against the company restraining the company from taking disciplinary action after he had posted information about the company’s recruitment of staff for his team on his personal account.
He claimed the company did nothing after he had been subjected to a barrage of abuse from people who accused him of trying to suppress freedom of speech on X.
Last month he posted an advert on LinkedIn for eight new roles revealing he was seeking people with a “passion for protecting the integrity of elections and civic events, X is certainly at the centre of the conversation”.
Sweeping new laws came into force in August, compelling social media platforms to remove fake accounts, disinformation and hate speech, with X rivals Facebook, TikTok, Instagram, Google and Microsoft all taking action and reporting back to the EU.
While Twitter quit the code of practice designed by the EU to help the companies comply with the new laws, Musk promised earlier this year he would comply with the rules.
Concerns over the platform’s approach to content moderation under Musk’s leadership have triggered an advertising boycott of the company, which relies on ads for the majority of its income.
Farhad Divecha, managing director of London-based digital marketing agency Accuracast, said: “The fact that Elon Musk seems to have disbanded the team that deals with election integrity sends a clear signal that preventing disinformation or maintaining a level of integrity isn’t a priority for X. This is one more factor adding to the concerns about brand safety, or ensuring brands aren’t associated with objectionable content.”